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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/fire-threat-wont-let-go-california-philippines-brace-torrential-rains-kai-tak

Fire Threat Won’t Let Go of California; Philippines Brace for Torrential Rain from Kai-Tak

The North Pacific is bookended by two major weather stories this weekend—one involving too much rain, the other too little. A slow-moving tropical storm crawling across the Philippines was adding to rainfall that could end up totaling several feet in some spots (see below). Meanwhile, another round of dangerous fire weather conditions was predicted for parts of Central and Southern California as a destructive, nerve-racking December continued across the parched state.

Critical fire weather possible in parts of Bay Area on Saturday
A strong cold front pushing southward through California will kick up high winds early in the weekend, leading to potentially critical fire weather conditions. In its outlook for Saturday, issued early Friday, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center highlighted the risk of critical fire weather across a large swath of central California, including most of the Bay Area as well as the North Bay Hills that were hammered by catastrophic fire in October. Relative humidity (RH) is not expected to drop into the less-than-10% range, which is associated with the most severe fire behavior, but north-northeast winds gusting beyond 30 mph may coincide with low RH of 15-25%.

Critical fire weather conditions are also possible from late Saturday into Sunday across parts of coastal Southern California hard-hit by massive late-season fires over the last two weeks.

No rain has fallen in the last two weeks across much of the Southwest U.S. (see Figure 1). With luck, parts of Northern California could see a modest early-winter storm late next week, but otherwise no major rain or snow is expected across the state for at least the next week to 10 days.

Thomas Fire grinds its way to new records
The Thomas Fire—still raging across Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, northwest of Los Angeles—grew from 242,500 acres on Thursday to 252,500 acres on Friday. That’s no small expansion: the fire consumed 15.6 square miles in just 24 hours.

The Thomas Fire now ranks as the fourth largest in California’s wildfire history, according to Cal Fire. Just ahead of it is the August 2013 Rim Fire: that one devoured 257,314 acres, so it looks likely that the Thomas Fire will soon displace it as #3 on the list. The state’s largest fire on record—the deadly, destructive Cedar fire of October 2003 in San Diego County—scorched 273,246 acres. Given the lack of rain in the forecast, it is quite possible that the Thomas fire will approach or break that record.

A total of 972 structures have now been destroyed by the Thomas Fire, putting it eighth on Cal Fire’s list of most destructive wildfires. Three of the top ten most destructive fires in California history have occurred in the last three months: the Thomas Fire, the Nuns Fire of October 2017 in Sonoma County (1355 structures lost), and the simultaneous Tubbs Fire, also in Sonoma County (a record 5643 structures destroyed).

More than 8000 firefighters were battling the Thomas Fire on Friday. The deadly nature of their work was brought home on Thursday as Cal Fire reported that one of them—32-year-old Ken Iverson, a fire apparatus engineer from San Diego—died on Thursday. The other fatality associated with the December fires to date was a 70-year-old woman killed while evacuating, according to the Washington Post.

There is some good news: the Thomas Fire was 35% contained as of Friday morning, up from 30% on Thursday morning, and evacuations were lifted on Thursday afternoon for parts of Ventura County. Firefighting efforts were focused on the western and eastern ends of the fire. “Fire will continue to threaten the communities of Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Summerland, Montecito and surrounding areas,” said Cal Fire in a Friday morning update.

Vast amounts of smoke have wafted into California’s Central Valley, leading to poor air quality. According to AirNow.gov, cities from Bakersfield to Stockton were experiencing air at noon PST Friday rated “unhealthy” as a result of small particulates (PM2.5).

Floods and landslides the main threat from Tropical Storm Kai-Tak
Slow-moving Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (dubbed Urduja in the Philippines) will continue to drench the Philippines through the weekend as it slogs slowly westward. High wind shear will keep the storm from gaining a more coherent structure. However, Kai-

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articles on the current storms

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/daily-downpours-to-raise-risk-of-flooding-from-texas-to-the-carolinas/70002389

Daily downpours to raise risk of flooding from Texas to the Carolinas

Drenching thunderstorms will frequent the southern United States and raise the risk for local flash flooding and travel delays this week.
The set up early this week will lead to heavier and more frequent thunderstorms than what is typical in the South during the summer months.
“An unsettled pattern will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms, perhaps heavy ones, from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas early this week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait said.
Moisture will congregate along a stalled system and lead to daily doses of wet weather through Wednesday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will follow later in the week even as the front fizzles or lifts back northward.
Some communities will be drenched multiple times this week, raising the risk for flash, urban and small stream flooding.
The thunderstorms have the potential to unleash several inches of rain in as many hours, which could quickly overwhelm storm drains and low-lying areas.
Major flooding hit San Antonio, Texas, on Monday morning as nearly 2.5 inches of rain poured down across the metro area. Nearby, a Cocorahs observer recorded 7.52 inches of rain near Llano, Texas. According to the emergency manager, water rescues were performed in flooded areas.

Dallas and Houston; Shreveport, Louisiana; Birmingham and Montgomery, Alabama; Atlanta; Columbia, South Carolina; and Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, are all in line for downpours this week.
The downpours will also target the Florida Peninsula, threatening to occasionally keep summer vacationers indoors in Orlando and Miami.
The thunderstorms will add to the meteorological summer (June through August) rainfall record that Gainesville, Florida, has already set. A total of 34.60 inches of rain fell spanning June to August 4, surpassing the previous record of 32.55 inches from 1965.
Gainesville averages 19.58 inches during the meteorological summer months.

Airline passengers may encounter flight delays, while residents should prepare for possible disruptions to sporting events and other outdoor plans.
A few of the thunderstorms may also unleash damaging winds.
“Typical August heat will be kept at bay due to the increase in thunderstorms,” Strait said.
High temperatures that are usually in the 90s F will be held in the lower to middle 80s.
The exception will be across much of the Florida Peninsula. Storms in this area will be more typical and spotty in nature. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the lower 90s on most days.

Tropical Storm Franklin to threaten Mexico twice this week

Tropical Storm Franklin formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Sunday and threatens to strike Mexico twice this week.
The combination of very warm water and diminishing wind shear will allow Franklin to strengthen before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night.

Wind shear is the changing of speed and direction of winds at different layers of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can prevent tropical development or shred apart mature tropical storms or hurricanes.
As a result, Franklin may strengthen rapidly prior to its first landfall Monday night.
“Franklin could be close to hurricane strength when it makes landfall over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula later Monday night,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
People on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula should hurry preparations due to a direct hit from a tropical system near hurricane strength during Monday night. A hurricane has sustained winds of 74 mph or greater with higher gusts.

Franklin also affect Honduras and Nicaragua, Belize, southeastern Mexico and northern Guatemala. Northern Belize could be hit hard, if Franklin shifts its track slightly farther south.
Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will ramp up and spread westward, while seas and surf build in the region.
“Mudslides could get triggered in the higher terrain of Central America,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister said.
The worst of the storm will pass southeast of the Cayman Islands. However, rough seas will occur around the islands into Monday night.

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Strange days indeed.

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http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/tropical-storm-etau-japan-flooding-landslides

Dramatic helicopter rescues unfolded on live television in Japan Thursday as a flood-swollen river breached a levee, sending raging floodwaters into a neighborhood north of Tokyo and leaving dozens of residents trapped on the roofs or upper floors of their homes. At least three people are missing in Japan due to flooding and landslides caused by extreme rainfall resulting from former Tropical Storm Etau.

Rare emergency warnings for heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides were issued for nearly 5 million people in two prefectures near Tokyo Thursday morning as torrential rain continued to inundate parts of Japan, flooding hundreds of homes.

Just after midnight early Thursday (Japan time), the Japan Meteorological Agency issued an emergency warning for heavy rainfall in Tochigi Prefecture, north of Tokyo, where more than 20 inches of rain fell in 24 hours in some locations. (Japan is 13 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Daylight Time.)

Shortly before 8 a.m. local time Thursday, JMA added nearly all of Ibaraki Prefecture, northeast of Tokyo, to the emergency heavy rainfall warning as the heavy rain band shifted ever so slightly to the east and rivers burst their banks as runoff from rain elsewhere drained into rivers flowing through the prefecture.

As Etau moved north into the Sea of Japan Wednesday, a trailing north-south-oriented band of heavy rain stalled over the Kanto region, including Tokyo. Even though Etau was declared post-tropical late Wednesday evening, the band of rain continued to bring torrential rainfall over Tokyo and points to the north well into the daylight hours Thursday.

The resulting rainfall has been exceptionally heavy. JMA said the rainfall amounts being observed are to be expected roughly once every 50 years in some areas, raising concerns of unusually serious flooding and landslides.

According to the Tochigi Prefecture government, a landslide early Thursday in the city of Kanuma left one person missing and another person injured. Kanuma reported 444 millimeters (17.48 inches) of rain in the 24-hour period ending at 6 a.m. local time Thursday; in records that began in 1976, this was more than double the city’s previous 24-hour record of 212 mm (8.35 inches) set July 11, 2002.

The incident was one of 17 landslides reported by the prefectural government as of midday Thursday. One home each was damaged in two of the landslides, and 11 people were trapped but later rescued in another of the incidents. The government said five people were stranded in Nikkō due to flooding on a local river Wednesday night; firefighters rescued them around daybreak Thursday.

The incident was one of 17 landslides reported by the prefectural government as of midday Thursday. One home each was damaged in two of the landslides, and 11 people were trapped but later rescued in another of the incidents. The government said five people were stranded in Nikkō due to flooding on a local river Wednesday night; firefighters rescued them around daybreak Thursday.

Meanwhile, JMA issued its highest level of flood warning for the Kinugawa River Thursday morning. The river drains southward through the prefectures north of Tokyo. Early Thursday afternoon, the river breached a levee in the city of Joso, Ibaraki Prefecture.

Japan’s Self-Defense Force sent helicopters to the scene, plucking a number of people from rooftops and the top stories of homes near the stricken levee. Japanese television stations broadcast some of the dramatic scenes live as they happened during the early afternoon hours Thursday.

In one disturbing scene, two people were seen struggling to cling to the roof of what appeared to be a garage or shed as the structure began to crumble beneath them and collapse into the raging floodwaters. The television broadcast, streamed live on the website houdoukyoku.jp, quickly cut away from the images to show its in-studio anchors. The fate of the couple is not immediately clear.

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From afar the Earth seems calm, a blue sphere turning peacefully in space, but travel closer and you find a turbulent and terrifying place. An atmosphere where hurricanes and tornados are spawned, and below that a realm of volcanos and earthquakes.

Starting just before New Year’s Day, on Boxing Day 2004, the year 2005 was the most disastrous on record, with hundreds of billions of pounds of losses and more than half a million deaths. This programme covers the litany of planetary catastrophes, from the extraordinary Boxing Day killer tsunami in the Indian Ocean, through the great Kashmir earthquake to Hurricane Katrina and the devastation it wrought on New Orleans, along with UK events, such as the Birmingham tornado, which reached the highest tornado category, yet miraculously killed no-one.

2005 saw an onslaught of epic-scale climate and geological events across the world, all caught on camera in the most spectacular fashion by professionals and amateurs alike. Using eye-witness footage, interviews with survivors and rescuers and analysis from geological and weather specialists, this documentary charts the incredible natural events of a year where almost every month was affected by a natural disaster.

At that time it was the hottest year on record, and the stormiest, people on every continent were affected in some way by the year’s disasters. World leading scientists and climatologists speculate whether the events have been triggered by a real shift in the earth’s climatic systems.

Some of the natural disasters covered in this documentary :

Indian Ocean Earthquake and Asian Tsunami

The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake was an undersea megathrust earthquake that occurred on 26th December with an epicentre off the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. The earthquake was caused when the Indian Plate was subducted by the Burma Plate and triggered a series of devastating tsunamis along the coasts of most landmasses bordering the Indian Ocean, killing over 230,000 people in fourteen countries, and inundating coastal communities with waves up to 30 metres high.

Maharashtra Floods

The 2005 Maharashtra floods refers to the flooding of many parts of the Indian state of Maharashtra including large areas of the metropolis Mumbai a city located on the coast of the Arabian Sea, on the western coast of India, in which at least 5,000 people died.

Birmingham Tornado

The Birmingham tornado was one of the strongest tornadoes recorded in the United Kingdom in nearly 30 years, occurring on 28th July 2005 in the suburbs of Birmingham. The tornado uprooted an estimated 1,000 trees, removed the roofs of buildings, picked up and deposited cars and caused other damage during its short existence.

European Floods

The 2005 European floods hit mainly Romania, Switzerland, Austria and Germany, as well as several other countries in Central Europe and Eastern Europe during August. The disaster came at a time when Portugal was suffering from intense forest fires which left 15 dead.

Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina was the deadliest and most destructive Atlantic tropical cyclone of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It is the costliest natural disaster, as well as one of the deadliest hurricanes, in the history of the United States. At least 1,833 people died in the hurricane and subsequent floods. The most significant number of deaths occurred in New Orleans, Louisiana, which flooded as the levee system catastrophically failed.

Kashmir Earthquake

The Kashmir earthquake occurred on 8th October 2005 and was centred in the Pakistan administered Kashmir near the city of Muzaffarabad, and also affected the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. It registered a moment magnitude of 7.6. The government of Pakistan’s official death toll was 75,000. The severity of the damage caused by the earthquake is attributed to severe upthrust, coupled with poor construction.

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